Friday, January 20, 2012
Watch live: Winner of poll to be left's Mexico City mayor candidate
Here's the live stream. Everything indicates it will be Miguel Mancera, after Alejandra Barrales cancelled her appearance and claimed "irregularities" in the poll to decide the left's candidate for Mexico city mayor 2012.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Two new political biographies: Marcelo Ebrard and Carlos Navarrete
Books in Mexico are indeed expensive, and not only in relative terms, but also in absolute terms: A thing paperback will easily go for 20-25 dollars, with much left wanting in terms of editing and organization. That does not stop me from spending way too much money on books on Mexican politics.
Two news ones I just went through: A biography of Marcelo Ebrard, and an auto-biography of Carlos Navarrete. The former I do not recommend; the latter I do.
The book by Alejandro Páez Varela on Marcelo Ebrard is not really that bad, and does offer some new insights on Ebrard, especially his trajectory in the 1990s. I did not know, for instance, that he went with Cárdenas in 1988, even if he stayed in the PRI, and the book also reminded he that he was an outspoken opponent of the FOBAPROA bank bailout in the late 1990s - something that likely endeared him to AMLO.
But the problem is this: There are too few sources, and the books is simply too thin, with large font, and virtually the entire book is printed elsewhere! That's right, as a chapter in the excellent edited volume Los Suspirantes by Jorge Zepeda Patterson, by the same editorial. Rip-off alert, indeed - and the chapter in Zepada's book is even better, as it has removed some unnecessary self-promotion by Páez' own projects. One additional weakness is that in the book, Páez lets his interview subjects simply talk, and presents their criticism of Ebrard (or praise) uncontested - there is little analysis and attempts to actually confront what they are saying, or corroborate their claims.
The second books is bye Senator Carlos Navarrete of the PRD, entitled De Frente. It is also pretty thin and clearly written with Navarrete's failed bid to be the lefts candidate for Mexico City in mind, but it is nonetheless a highly enjoyable read of Navarrete's political life, and includes some very interesting material on the Mexican left and the PRD. Did you know, for instance, that the PRD's parliamentary coordinator, ahead of Calderón's acceptance speech-ceremony in the Chamber of Deputies, which the PRD sought to block, had to make a last-minute desperate search to locate tear-gas granadesthat some deputies were planning to hurl during the ceremony (with likely injury and loss of life)? The coordinator, Javier González, successfully located the grenades, and stored them in his own car outside of congress...
There's also much more good recent material here, such as the 2008 oil reform of PEMEX, and AMLO's ridiculous blocking of a reform that his own advisers had largely drafted. Go and read it.
Two news ones I just went through: A biography of Marcelo Ebrard, and an auto-biography of Carlos Navarrete. The former I do not recommend; the latter I do.
The book by Alejandro Páez Varela on Marcelo Ebrard is not really that bad, and does offer some new insights on Ebrard, especially his trajectory in the 1990s. I did not know, for instance, that he went with Cárdenas in 1988, even if he stayed in the PRI, and the book also reminded he that he was an outspoken opponent of the FOBAPROA bank bailout in the late 1990s - something that likely endeared him to AMLO.
But the problem is this: There are too few sources, and the books is simply too thin, with large font, and virtually the entire book is printed elsewhere! That's right, as a chapter in the excellent edited volume Los Suspirantes by Jorge Zepeda Patterson, by the same editorial. Rip-off alert, indeed - and the chapter in Zepada's book is even better, as it has removed some unnecessary self-promotion by Páez' own projects. One additional weakness is that in the book, Páez lets his interview subjects simply talk, and presents their criticism of Ebrard (or praise) uncontested - there is little analysis and attempts to actually confront what they are saying, or corroborate their claims.
The second books is bye Senator Carlos Navarrete of the PRD, entitled De Frente. It is also pretty thin and clearly written with Navarrete's failed bid to be the lefts candidate for Mexico City in mind, but it is nonetheless a highly enjoyable read of Navarrete's political life, and includes some very interesting material on the Mexican left and the PRD. Did you know, for instance, that the PRD's parliamentary coordinator, ahead of Calderón's acceptance speech-ceremony in the Chamber of Deputies, which the PRD sought to block, had to make a last-minute desperate search to locate tear-gas granadesthat some deputies were planning to hurl during the ceremony (with likely injury and loss of life)? The coordinator, Javier González, successfully located the grenades, and stored them in his own car outside of congress...
There's also much more good recent material here, such as the 2008 oil reform of PEMEX, and AMLO's ridiculous blocking of a reform that his own advisers had largely drafted. Go and read it.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Ebrard, mano dura
Marcelo Ebrard is capable of showing quite a bit of resolve when needed: As we wait for the three polls that will decide the left's candidate for mayor of Mexico City, Ebrard had forbidden any member of his government to make any declarations in favor or against any candidate, so as not to risk a fracture on the left.
It seems Tourism Minister Alejandro Rojas couldn't keep his mouth shut - he stupidly proclaimed that Miguel Mancera would be the candidate - and Ebrard promptly fired him.
Now that's what I call mano dura. Yet the damage may already be done: It may not be enough to keep Alejandra Barrales from expanding her protests, and possibly fracture the left.
It seems Tourism Minister Alejandro Rojas couldn't keep his mouth shut - he stupidly proclaimed that Miguel Mancera would be the candidate - and Ebrard promptly fired him.
Now that's what I call mano dura. Yet the damage may already be done: It may not be enough to keep Alejandra Barrales from expanding her protests, and possibly fracture the left.
AMLO names minister of economy
Yet another name for a possible AMLO cabinet: He recently announced as, should he win in 2012, his future minister of the economy, Fernando Turner Dávila, a Nuevo León businessman who is head of ANEI, the national association of independent businessmen (Asociación Nacional de Empresarios Independientes).
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Deadline passes, five millions did not renew IFE credentials
Long lines formed the past days outside IFE centers due to a Jan. 15 deadline to renew voter credentials for those whose cards ended in 2003. Unless they did so, they will not be able to vote in the 2012 election.
There is some cause to worry here: Around 5 million people registered did not do so, a very big chunk of the electorate. IFE, which refused to extend the deadline (citing, correctly, previously agreed law), insisted that "60 percent" of these have left the country, and a further "25 percent" are deceased. Even if true, that would still leave 600,000 or so unable to vote in 2012.
There is some cause to worry here: Around 5 million people registered did not do so, a very big chunk of the electorate. IFE, which refused to extend the deadline (citing, correctly, previously agreed law), insisted that "60 percent" of these have left the country, and a further "25 percent" are deceased. Even if true, that would still leave 600,000 or so unable to vote in 2012.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Peña Nieto as Putin?
Here's a column by Jorge Zepada in English for the Financial Times that is well worth the read:
(I am currently working on his excellent edited volume "Los Suspirantes 2012," on the 2012 candidates - more on that book later).
The result of the 2012 elections will push one way or the other. If the PRI wins with such a big margin that it ends up controlling Congress, the temptation for Peña Nieto to become a Mexican Putin will be immense. The public’s yearning for a crack-down on organised crime will only encourage him further. The deterioration of the security situation in Mexico is a tailor-made alibi for an authoritarian government and a big win would look like a blank cheque sent directly from the people.Read the column here.
(I am currently working on his excellent edited volume "Los Suspirantes 2012," on the 2012 candidates - more on that book later).
Mexico vs. Brazil, perceptions and reality
Jorge Castañeda has a quite thoughtful comparison on Mexico and Brazil in Reforma that is well worth the read (Reforma is subscriber only, but the article is also available here.)
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