All three parties claimed to have won the Michoacán election, with the surprise winner Fausto Vallejo Figueroa on top in the PREP, or Programa de Resultados Electorales Preliminares. As its name implies, these are not the official results and have no legal value - they are based on a quick count of the actas or tally sheets, which it appears were scanned electronically just as they came in.
For the official count, the complete electoral packets must be sent in to the electoral districts of the state, and the numbers of the tally sheets checked. They may also be opened and actually recounted, if the data on the tally sheet indicate, well, that something just ain't right - that the numbers don't add up with votes cast and reported remaining ballots, etc.
What is interesting is the ballot boxes reported in the PREP - access, in Excel form, to all the boxes is given here. Of the 6075 boxes reported for governor, the more one skims down the page (they are ordered according to when first reported in to the PREP), there are many hundreds of instances of 1) Tally sheet ineligible, 2) Sum of votes superior to the number of people voting, 3) Numbers do not match up, 4) Envelope empty, and 5) Envelope not handed over.
See for yourself here. Skimming the sheet, at least 500 boxes were not counted as part of the PREP. Though we don't know the absolute size of this vote, in terms of percentage of ballot boxes, that is quite a bit (8 percent based on purely eyeball measure) - and if we assume the number of votes in each box is roughly on average with the ones that were counted, (2-300 it seems, again just skimming), we are talking 100,000-150,000 votes not counted.
They could, of course, follow a complete normal distribution, in that they are spread out evenly among the candidates, but I will certainly withhold judgment on who won in Michoacán Sunday until both the state electoral institute and electoral tribunal have ratified the election.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Michoacán governor election: PRI ahead with 89% of voted counted
According to the PREP, or a program for preliminary election results contracted by Michoacán's electoral authority, Fausto Vallejo Figueroa is leading in the count to be Michoacán's next governor with 35.38 percent.
Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa is in second place with 32.67.
If confirmed, this is quite an upset: All major polls had Calderón's sister Cocoa as the favorite. It will be a huge triumph for the PRI ahead of 2012.
PRI won in all four districts of the capital Morelia, where Vallejo was governor, and the two in Uruapan. It is also ahead in Hidalgo, Zitácuaro, Apatzingán, Zinapécuaro and Múgica - 9 districts.
PAN is ahead in La Piedad, Zamora, Jiquilpan, Jacona and Tacámbaro, while PRD won Lázaro Cárdenas, Puruándiro, Zacapu, Huetamo, Maravatío, Los Reyes, Pátzcuaro and Coalcomán.
What is moreover clear, as Milenio proclaims front page in its print edition, is that the PRD lost control of the state.
Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa is in second place with 32.67.
If confirmed, this is quite an upset: All major polls had Calderón's sister Cocoa as the favorite. It will be a huge triumph for the PRI ahead of 2012.
PRI won in all four districts of the capital Morelia, where Vallejo was governor, and the two in Uruapan. It is also ahead in Hidalgo, Zitácuaro, Apatzingán, Zinapécuaro and Múgica - 9 districts.
PAN is ahead in La Piedad, Zamora, Jiquilpan, Jacona and Tacámbaro, while PRD won Lázaro Cárdenas, Puruándiro, Zacapu, Huetamo, Maravatío, Los Reyes, Pátzcuaro and Coalcomán.
What is moreover clear, as Milenio proclaims front page in its print edition, is that the PRD lost control of the state.
Michoacán election and one thing I truly detest about Mexican politics
No official results are in - none. Yet both the presidents of PAN and PRI, respectively, claim their candidate won the election with, to be sure, an "irreversible advantage."
Politics have become, to a certain extent, a race to the bottom, where each party simply calls out that it won in a better-safe-than-sorry fashion, clearly not trusting the process enough to leave this job to the official electoral authorities, yet in the process showing absolutely no regard for the democratic process or the institutions actually charged with declaring a winner.
Think 2006: First AMLO, and then Calderón, claimed to have won the election - even both had sworn to await the official results. Do they never learn, or do they simply not care?
This behavior is truly irresponsible, and only contributes toward creating more and more mistrust.
Politics have become, to a certain extent, a race to the bottom, where each party simply calls out that it won in a better-safe-than-sorry fashion, clearly not trusting the process enough to leave this job to the official electoral authorities, yet in the process showing absolutely no regard for the democratic process or the institutions actually charged with declaring a winner.
Think 2006: First AMLO, and then Calderón, claimed to have won the election - even both had sworn to await the official results. Do they never learn, or do they simply not care?
This behavior is truly irresponsible, and only contributes toward creating more and more mistrust.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
God is pro-drug war
God is pro-drug war. At least the Mexican Roman-Catholic one: The Conferencia del Episcopado Mexicano (CEM), or Mexican Episcopal Conference, the leadership of the Catholic church in Mexico, strongly backed Calderón's fight against the drug cartels, despite recent criticism by Human Rights Watch and the Washington Office of Latin America on the fallout of the "drug war."
The CEM admitted there had been "some victims," yet minimized the claims of HRW and WOLA that Calderón's decision to send the military head-on against the drug cartels has dramatically increased violence as well as human rights violations.
Calderón's government has as well minimized the reports, to the chagrin of the political opposition.
The CEM admitted there had been "some victims," yet minimized the claims of HRW and WOLA that Calderón's decision to send the military head-on against the drug cartels has dramatically increased violence as well as human rights violations.
Calderón's government has as well minimized the reports, to the chagrin of the political opposition.
No evidence yet of foul play in death of interior secretary
The Mexican Secretary of Communications and Transportation (SCT) said preliminary investigations have uncovered no evidence or indications of a fire or explosion in the helicopter crash that claimed the life of Interior Secretary José Francisco Blake Mora and seven others Friday.
WOLA on the Mérida Initiative
Two recent views on the Mérida Initiative:
The U.S. Embassy in Mexico claims the Mérida Initiative has been a great success, having contributed to the arrest of drug traffickers, actions against money laundering and arms traffickers, and of the training of police and security forces.
Washington Office of Latin America (WOLA): the Mérida Initiative has led to an increase in violence in Mexico.
Read the WOLA report here, and is very much worth a read. It also includes a very useful graphic comparing the Plan Colombia with Mérida:
The U.S. Embassy in Mexico claims the Mérida Initiative has been a great success, having contributed to the arrest of drug traffickers, actions against money laundering and arms traffickers, and of the training of police and security forces.
Washington Office of Latin America (WOLA): the Mérida Initiative has led to an increase in violence in Mexico.
Read the WOLA report here, and is very much worth a read. It also includes a very useful graphic comparing the Plan Colombia with Mérida:
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| From WOLA |
Michoacán votes: President's sister is favorite
Luisa María Calderón Hinojosa, the sister's president, is the favorite ahead of today's gubernatorial election in Michoacán. Accusations have been flying of illegal interventions from the PAN-led federal government to back Cocoa.
1,639 election observers, a record high, will guard election, which will also see a heavy security presence by the army and federal police - reportedly 10,000 in total, to guard the 3.4 million voters, of which around 50 percent are expected to participate. Notably, michoacanos in the United States could also vote, via postal ballot, and around 600 or so such votes were registered and approved - or around 0.002 percent of the around a quarter of a million living abroad, meaning above all United States.
In Cherán, there will not be any ballot boxes installed, however, as its citizens have refused the holding of elections in the predominantly indigenous municipality, instead claiming their right to do so through the traditional usos y costumbres method used in indigenous areas particularly in Oaxaca.
The new governor will only sit three years and seven months, given earlier reforms in the state to gradually seek to synchronize the elections with the national
In addition, 40 state legislators and heads of 113 municipalities will be elected today. Polls close at 7 pm U.S. eastern time, and the preliminary results can be seen on www.iem.org.mx and www.prep.org.mx.
The company behind this PREP, PoderNet, assured voters these results were safe from any cyber attacks and manipulation.
1,639 election observers, a record high, will guard election, which will also see a heavy security presence by the army and federal police - reportedly 10,000 in total, to guard the 3.4 million voters, of which around 50 percent are expected to participate. Notably, michoacanos in the United States could also vote, via postal ballot, and around 600 or so such votes were registered and approved - or around 0.002 percent of the around a quarter of a million living abroad, meaning above all United States.
In Cherán, there will not be any ballot boxes installed, however, as its citizens have refused the holding of elections in the predominantly indigenous municipality, instead claiming their right to do so through the traditional usos y costumbres method used in indigenous areas particularly in Oaxaca.
The new governor will only sit three years and seven months, given earlier reforms in the state to gradually seek to synchronize the elections with the national
In addition, 40 state legislators and heads of 113 municipalities will be elected today. Polls close at 7 pm U.S. eastern time, and the preliminary results can be seen on www.iem.org.mx and www.prep.org.mx.
The company behind this PREP, PoderNet, assured voters these results were safe from any cyber attacks and manipulation.
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