Friday, July 29, 2011
Border crossings in southern Mexico drops drastically
Instituto Nacional de Migración (INM), the Mexican immigration institute, reports a huge drop in "irregular" border crossings - from 433,000 to 140,000 in the time span 2005-2010, or around 70 percent, in the south of Mexico.
Does PRI stand a chance in Mexico City?
There's been a few interesting articles in the press recently on the strength of PRI in the Federal District/Mexico City recently. Federal deputy and until a few months ago party president Beatriz Paredes Rangel is a likely candidate for mayor, and keeps fanning the flames that she might be a candidate again, like she was in 2006.
That time, she only came in third with barely 22 percent of the votes. Ever since, however, as El Universal reports, PRI has been growing, and the number of delegations where the party is the second largest (it runs none of Mexico City's 16 delegations, or boroughs) has risen to seven.
High-res graphic here:
Ever since the people of the federal district could choose their own governor - before 1997 the mayor was a "regent" appointed by the President - they have chosen PRD mayors. The PRD struggle with perennial factionalism, and so far there are at least 7 candidates who want to represent the left in the upcoming (July 1, 2012) elections. Given that some clientelistic networks led by René Arce and his brother Víctor Círigo ditched the PRD to join the PRI, if the battle to be the left candidate will be bloody, other defections may come and benefit the PRI.
Yet the PRI remains in a mess, organizationally speaking: It is two years behind in terms of choosing a new party president, and remain as well torn by internal struggles. It is nowhere near even keeping appearances of unity, as the PRI so intensely tries to on the national level. A PRI return in DF, then, even with a Peña Nieto national candidacy, I still see as unlikely.
That time, she only came in third with barely 22 percent of the votes. Ever since, however, as El Universal reports, PRI has been growing, and the number of delegations where the party is the second largest (it runs none of Mexico City's 16 delegations, or boroughs) has risen to seven.
High-res graphic here:
 |
| From El Universal |
Yet the PRI remains in a mess, organizationally speaking: It is two years behind in terms of choosing a new party president, and remain as well torn by internal struggles. It is nowhere near even keeping appearances of unity, as the PRI so intensely tries to on the national level. A PRI return in DF, then, even with a Peña Nieto national candidacy, I still see as unlikely.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Partido del Trabajo: Marcelo Ebrard is "young and unexperienced"
The latest anecdote piling on top of a mountain of evidence that there is absolutely no way that the Mexican "Workers Party" or PT will abide by its promise to back either Marcelo Ebrard or AMLO for 2012, depending on who is ahead in a national poll both candidate agreed to take:
Alberto Anaya, national president of the party, said that Ebard, age 51, is "very young, and because of this unexperienced" to be president.
Let's see. Before becoming mayor of Mexico City, what was AMLO's legislative or administrative experience? Any government office? Federal deputy? Senator? Local deputy? Mayor?
None. He was head of the Tabasco PRI, then joined the PRD, and was its president 1996-99, before becoming mayor.
In very much related news, the Convergencia party, which despite jumping on board with AMLO is on the verge of electoral extinction, recently suggested to fuse with the PT. Convergencia, to recall, will change its name to Citizens Movement soon, and change its party logo to use the eagle of AMLO's legitimate government. AMLO, in the meantime, has in the past year and a half used all of the PT's federally allotted airtime, to transmit 665,568 ads in radio and television all over the country.
So much for party identity.
Alberto Anaya, national president of the party, said that Ebard, age 51, is "very young, and because of this unexperienced" to be president.
Let's see. Before becoming mayor of Mexico City, what was AMLO's legislative or administrative experience? Any government office? Federal deputy? Senator? Local deputy? Mayor?
None. He was head of the Tabasco PRI, then joined the PRD, and was its president 1996-99, before becoming mayor.
In very much related news, the Convergencia party, which despite jumping on board with AMLO is on the verge of electoral extinction, recently suggested to fuse with the PT. Convergencia, to recall, will change its name to Citizens Movement soon, and change its party logo to use the eagle of AMLO's legitimate government. AMLO, in the meantime, has in the past year and a half used all of the PT's federally allotted airtime, to transmit 665,568 ads in radio and television all over the country.
So much for party identity.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
IFE's president demands appointment of three missing councilors
OK, not missing as in lost in the wilderness, but for all practical effects, pretty close:
Quite amazingly, given that the 2012 race has all but started, and that IFE will now have considerably more tasks than in 2006, following the 2007-8 electoral reform: The Mexican Chamber of Deputies still has not appointed three new councilors missing on the IFE's general council, following the departure of three many, many months ago - I am not even sure of how long IFE has been operating with only 6 councilors. But what I do know is that this is technically unconstitutional, and that the Chamber of Deputies - and principally PRI, which demands to appoint two out the three - is not doing its job.
IFE president Leonardo Valdés again called on congress to do this as soon as possible, as time is running out - for la grande, the 2012 presidential one, but also 15(!) gubernatorial elections that year. Given the expansions of IFE's functions, they really need all hands on deck here.
Quite amazingly, given that the 2012 race has all but started, and that IFE will now have considerably more tasks than in 2006, following the 2007-8 electoral reform: The Mexican Chamber of Deputies still has not appointed three new councilors missing on the IFE's general council, following the departure of three many, many months ago - I am not even sure of how long IFE has been operating with only 6 councilors. But what I do know is that this is technically unconstitutional, and that the Chamber of Deputies - and principally PRI, which demands to appoint two out the three - is not doing its job.
IFE president Leonardo Valdés again called on congress to do this as soon as possible, as time is running out - for la grande, the 2012 presidential one, but also 15(!) gubernatorial elections that year. Given the expansions of IFE's functions, they really need all hands on deck here.
Chiapas becomes first Mexican state to end the "arraigo"
Following the ratification of 78 municipalities, the state legislature in Chiapas declared an end to the legal arraigo, where citizens may be held without any charges in what is perhaps best translated as "preventive detention," in all its Orwellian glory.
Many human rights organizations have pushed for this, and for it to be extended to other states as well, and with good cause: It completely eliminates the presumption of innocence. The United Nations have also called on Mexico to end this legal practice. Now Chiapas became the first state to do so.
Many human rights organizations have pushed for this, and for it to be extended to other states as well, and with good cause: It completely eliminates the presumption of innocence. The United Nations have also called on Mexico to end this legal practice. Now Chiapas became the first state to do so.
The new fraud: Electoral tourism
El Universal has had some excellent columns as of late, and one of them is Denise Maerker's colum on "New forms of electoral fraud." I remember reading just one story on this subject from Mexico State, and Maerker puts a welcome spotlight on it again: PRI - because all the examples involve the party - is trying out a new method of influencing elections that has so far slipped under the radar screen of electoral authorities.
Simply put: In very competitive elections, with months of anticipation, local communities all of a sudden see a rush of new people moving to the area. They then try to gain residency, get a local voter card, and maintain it just long enough to vote and influence the election result.
The beast has a name: "Electoral tourism." It is far to early to say how widespread it is, and clearly it is a complicated operation that is not pulled off easily. Yet it seems fair to posit, as does Maerker, that this the new electoral fraud.
Almost makes you miss the good ole' vote tacos.
Simply put: In very competitive elections, with months of anticipation, local communities all of a sudden see a rush of new people moving to the area. They then try to gain residency, get a local voter card, and maintain it just long enough to vote and influence the election result.
The beast has a name: "Electoral tourism." It is far to early to say how widespread it is, and clearly it is a complicated operation that is not pulled off easily. Yet it seems fair to posit, as does Maerker, that this the new electoral fraud.
Almost makes you miss the good ole' vote tacos.
Monday, July 25, 2011
AMLO puts the PT back in line - no separate candidacy in Michoacán
To his credit, AMLO will not back a separate Partido del Trabajo (PT) candidate for governor of Michoacán, as many feared: On the contrary, he even offered to put the structure of his MORENA movement at the disposal of PRD's candidate.
I assume he must have come to the conclusion that a loss for the left in Michoacán, thanks to a potential spoiler candidacy of the PT, would have torpedoed his already remote chances in 2012.
I assume he must have come to the conclusion that a loss for the left in Michoacán, thanks to a potential spoiler candidacy of the PT, would have torpedoed his already remote chances in 2012.
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