Thursday, June 23, 2011

Pablo Salazar Mendiguchí, a political prisoner?

Miguel Ángel Granados Chapa, writing in Proceso, offers an impassioned defense of former Chiapas governor Pablo Salazar Mendiguchí, now under arrest on embezzlement and other charges, arguing essentially that Sabines and the old PRI machinery of Chiapas is exacting its revenge on someone who dared to defy them.

He also deems Salazar a political prisoner.

The June 22 Encinas-Bravo Mena-Ávila Mexico State debate

Yesterday's debate can be found here in its entirety. There is from my point of view no doubt who commands the debate: Alejandro Encinas.

Devastating analysis of presidential hopeful Alonso Lujambio, by Denise Dresser

Denise Dresser, writing in Proceso (which appears to have opened up access to its articles), has a devastating analysis of education secretary Alonso Lujambio that is well worth a read.

Essentially, she argues Lujambio has not achieved much at all, and does not have the required "fire in the belly" to become president, and simply does not have a full understanding of Mexico's current difficult situation or indeed, political reality.

How subsidies benefit the rich in Mexico: United Nations report

The new United Nations Report Informe sobre Desarrollo Humano México 2011: equidad del gasto público: derechos sociales universales con subsidios focalizados, highlights how so many of the Mexican government's programs "in redistributive terms are probably very questionable": They do not serve to lessen income differences, but rather benefit the rich more than the poor. I haven't gotten to read the report yet, but El Universal highlights a few examples:

- Farm subsidies going to richer farmers
- Health spending benefits not going to the poorest
- Education spending, ditto

(One excellent earlier study that demonstrate what programs in fact to improve equality, and which lead to more inequality, is A Decade of Falling. Inequality in Mexico: Market Forces or State Action? by Gerardo Esquivel, Nora Lustig and John Scott. One earlier version available for free here)

Another case in point: Ending the tenencia, or roughly the sales tax for new cars, has been a populist mantra for particularly PRI candidates for governor, who foolishly (from a financial, not electoral point of view) have championed taking away a tax that not only has provided much-needed income to cash-strapped state governments, but whose elimination will be a blatant hand-out to the more wealthy of Mexicans.

Who wants to pay car sales taxes voluntarily? Of course few, but fact remains that the ones most likely to pay the highest tenencia are from the upper economic layers of Mexican society.

Credit then, of sorts, to Veracruz Governor César Duarte,  who despite irresponsibly calling for the elimination of the tenencia in his election campaign, is now backtracking and want to keep it, realizing that its elimination would break the state's finances.

What a belated "discovery" - after the election has been one, of course.

Guess who else is proposing its elimination, and ranking high in polls? PRI candidate Eruviel Ávila in Mexico State. When the time comes to pick up the bill... well, that's another story.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

A devastating analysis of "analyst" Sylvia Longmire

I've earlier bumped into some writing by Sylvia Longmire, which I had a gut-level reaction of dislike to, given the alarmist hyperbole from someone who shows no indication of actually having set her foot in Mexico or the U.S. border, two areas she writes about.

Now Tom Barry of Center for International Policy has an absolutely devastating review of Longmire, which I strongly recommend as a warning against the so-called "intelligence experts" popping up to inform or rather misinform the public (in contrast to Barry's excellent blog, http://borderlinesblog.blogspot.com/, which is among the most informative on the subject).

Read the column here.

AMLO on new Morena tour. What will IFE do?

And AMLO will launch a new tour for Morena, where he said will promote his presidential proyect.


Given that this clearly breaks Mexican electoral law, what will the Mexican electoral institute (IFE) do? 
Or perhaps the question should rather be: When IFE deems AMLO to engage in campaigning outside of the allowed time frame for elections, how will AMLO respond? "They are all against us!"? This has the potential to blow up pretty soon. 

The end of the Convergencia party? Good riddance

The Convergencia party appears set to dissolve to become AMLO's own party, including changing its name to Morena, the name of AMLO's movement. Some party members oppose this plan.

Why good riddance? Because this is a party that, while now appearing as a radical pro-AMLO party, started out, and very much remains, the personal outfit of Senator Dante Delgado Rannauro, once an interim PRI governor from Vera Cruz, who ditched PRI to create Convergencia in 1998. The party ever since sold itself to the highest bidder, and it took major concessions from the left (PRD) for Convergencia to accept being its partner in 2006. After this election, when it was in danger, with the Partido del Trabajo, of losing its registry because of its low turnout, it jumped on AMLO's bandwagon, becoming one of the most "radical" parties in Mexico - a complete turnaround.  Before and after, it has on state elections at times joined with the left, other times with its electoral opponents - wherever it could reap some direct benefits. Most recent example: Now Víctor Hugo Círigo, a national Convergencia deputy, has joined the PRI campaign of Eruviel Ávila in Mexico State.

New, serious political parties, with a clear agenda and mission, are always welcome, but Convergencia never belonged to that category, rather merely contributing to fragmentation of the vote in Mexico.

So good riddance, Convergencia.