Guerrero gubernatorial election: Also about Ebrard vs. Peña Nieto.

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard continues his active campaigning for the left´s coalition candidate in Guerrero, Ángel Aguirre River, who in campaign appearances with Ebrard promises to implement the same social programs Ebrard, and before him Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has carried out with much success in Mexico City. Amidst worrying reports that the electoral campaign is getting ever more tense and that violence has broken out between supporters of Aguirre and of PRI´s candidate Manuel Añorve Baños, Ebrard directly accused PRI of trying to buy the vote in old fashion with handouts of cement and building materials.

Governor of Mexico State, Enrique Peña Nieto, will also appear soon in state capital Chilpancingo,  Añorve Baños announced. The state election in Guerrero, while also highly significant of itself, will thus clearly be a prelude to 2012: Aguirre vs. Añorve also means Ebrard vs. Peña Nieto.

Aguachile is tying the knot in Mexico

Aguachile has fled the cold winds of the north for the warm embrace of central Mexico, and not just for research this time:  I will get married in a few days, and as I am busy running around putting the final touches on everything from coordinating the mariachis to maintaining bountiful supplies of tequila, blogging will likely be sporadic for some time. I hope you will all have a wonderful December!

AMLO, asked if he would decline for Ebrard: "Would you? No, right?"

AMLO, asked by a reporter if he would consider declining for Ebrard, responded: "Would you? No, right?"
Nevermind that AMLO continues with his standard "whoever is ahead in the polls" line, which he knows is nonsense: AMLO will run in 2012 even with Ebrard as the PRD candidate. I'm willing to take bets here.

In the same appearance, AMLO referred to the leader of the PRD, Jesús Ortega, as a "traitor," for allying with the PAN in certain states. Yet what about the cases when AMLO himself did this as PRD leader? AMLO even considered allying with PAN in 2000, to recall.
Yet his hypocrisy isn't even the main point here. What does it serve to name someone a "traitor"? Why this harsh, violent language? What does one, indeed, do with "traitors"? My first association here is death by firing squad.

In the context of the blood bath that is now soaking Mexico, with 30,000 or more killed in Calderón's war, such language is certainly not worthy of anyone thinking himself presidenciable.

The Craziest One is dead: Government confirms death of Nazario Moreno González

The Mexican government confirms the death of Nazario Moreno González, nicknamed "El Chayo" or "El Más Loco," a man usually considered the founder and leader of La Familia Michoacana.

I don't usually write directly about Mexico's ill-termed "drug war," yet as I am currently in Michoacán and specifically in what has often been described as one of La Familia Michoacana´s stronghold, I can only note that yes, bullets have surely been flying around here the past couple of days.

Baja California Sur: AMLO calls for Mexicans not to vote

In a press conference, AMLO made it clear he does not support the PRD´s gubernatorial candidate in the upcoming state elections Baja California Sur, Luis Armando Díaz, even though the PRD here has not gone in an alliance with the PAN. Notably, AMLO also called for the Sudcalifornianos not to vote at all.

This, again, in stark contrast to Marcelo Ebrard, who backs him.

There's something rotten in IFE

While I don´t follow Mexico's Federal electoral institute (IFE) and its Electoral tribunal (TEPJF) as closely as I should, there seems to me to be quite a bit of anecdotal evidence for two trends:

1) IFE has tended to absolve Governor of Mexico State Enrique Peña Nieto for most every complaint against him, while ordering his opponents to stop many of their ads against him
2) The Electoral tribunal has castigated IFE for many of these decisions.

The IFE operates according to guidelines that it cannot be held responsible for, of course - they were drawn up by congress. While the most recent 2007-8 electoral reform had many positive aspects to it, it is now apparent it also contained quite a few flaws, most apparently the inability - and for now I emphasize inability over unwillingness - of IFE to stop the incessant official propaganda and publicity in Mexico State in favor of its governor.

(By the way, the PRI-led state congress just approved in committee another hike, bringing the sum up, according to PRD, to 1.6 billion pesos)

However, IFE has been quite capable of interpreting its guidelines to ban ads from the PRD or other opposition parties against Peña Nieto. This has happened on a range of occasions, including just a few days ago, when IFE ordered the PRD to take out a line from a political ad that was deemed "denigrating" toward Peña Nieto´s image. The words in question? "Peña Nieto fears the political alliances" [of PAN and PRD].

Really? This line is "denigrating" the governor of Mexico State? I have a hunch that last word is not said in this case. Why? Because the TEPJF unanimously again ordered IFE to reopen another complaint from the PAN against Peña Nieto's government propaganda in relation with his fifth informe, publicity also transmitted in Guerrero and Baja California Sur (upcoming elections), which the IFE rejected. to rule on. It's just one more case of TEPJF ordering IFE to revisit an early decision - hardly dramatic in itself - but it just happens to be on Peña Nieto.

Something is happening here but you don't know what it is. Do you, Mr. Jones.

AMLO's farce in Mexico State: Yeidckol Polevnsky would decline for Encinas

While Alejandro Encinas has repeatedly denied the possibility of being the candidate of the left in Mexico State, for the very simple reason that he does not meet the residency requirement of actually having lived in the state for quite some time, he apparently is having a change of heart these days, following rumors of heavy pressure from AMLO given the postulation of Yeidckol Polevnsky as his candidate, which has led to a rebellion among AMLO´s own ranks. It is hard to see that this will succeed, and moreover, this also would depend on whether the PRD wants him as its candidate: As Jesús Ortega, head of the PRD, succinctly stated regarding the candidacies: "it is not a matter of appearances for worshipers;  it is a democratic decision of party members." In other words, even if Encinas should magically find out that he still is eligible, his nomination is still not a shoe-in

Even so: Consider this. Yeidckol Polevnsky just declared  she would not hesitate to decline and back his bid. So when AMLO's "she's the one" handpicked candidate declares that she would immediately decline should another, and better, candidate appear, what does that say about her candidacy?

I am hard pressed to think of a more stark admission of her sub par qualities as a candidate.